VU University Amsterdam, Institute for Ecological Science
Wageningen UR, Alterra
NMP
KIWA Water Research
Description
New multifunctional spatial arrangements will be explored jointly with stakeholders for the low-lying peat meadows in the western part of the Netherlands (Utrechtse Venen) and in the higher sandy area in the eastern part of the country (Achterhoek; Winterswijk). This approach aims to support regional development in the light of climate change, biodiversity conservation and agricultural policy. The economic potential of multifunctional land use will be analysed in the form of ‘green’ and ‘blue’ services.
The prime goal of this research is to predict the effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of vegetation of ecosystems in the Netherlands. This knowledge will be used to identify biodiversity hotspots under various climate change and water management scenarios. In addition, early warning systems for climate change will be developed and adaptation strategies proposed for achieving an optimal land use pattern with respect to biodiversity. The project is linked thematically to A2.
A2 - Strategies for optimizing the nature conservation potential of the Dutch Ecological Network and the surrounding multifunctional farm landscape under predicted climate
Wageningen UR, Alterra, Plant Research International, Environmental Sciences Department
Leiden University Institute of Environmental Sciences
SOVON Vogelonderzoek
Dutch Butterfly Conservation
Description
There is a need to identify climate-change driven spatial changes in land use and land development, and integrate changes in agriculture, industry, housing, nature conservation and water management into balanced national visions and regional solutions.
The aim of this project is to identify the ecological risks of climate change for the current policy objectives for the National Ecological Network. Adaptation strategies will be developed to minimise these risks. These strategies will be geared to making optimal use of the opportunities afforded by the multifunctional development of an agricultural landscape. The emphasis will be on combining food production, recreation, conservation of the cultural landscape and water management. This project is linked thematically to project A1.
This research aims to produce a detailed spatial picture of the former, present and future characteristics of the marine ecosystem (algae, fish and water quality) in the North Sea, with an emphasis on the Dutch section of the Continental Shelf. The influence of climate change on variables such as CO2 exchange in the ecosystem, temperature and nutrient dynamics will be examined. Modelling exercises will be undertaken to explore the consequences for the fisheries sector (productivity) and biodiversity. Furthermore, a management tool will be developed to obtain a better understanding of the complexity of climate–ecosystem interactions and allow decision-makers to weigh up and appraise various spatial values of the North Sea, such as nature conservation values, fish production and energy extraction.
VU University Amsterdam, FAWL, Institute of Environmental Studies, FALW, Dept of Geo-Environmental Sciences
Wageningen UR, Environmental Sciences Department, Alterra
Future Water
WL Delft Hydraulics
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
National Institute for Inland Water Management and Waste Water Treatment (RIZA)
The CcSP programme is developing a coupled atmospheric-hydrological model describing both the energy and water balance for the whole Rhine basin (project A7) in order to support the development of transboundary adaptation measures. Representation of the (non-linear) feedbacks between soil moisture, evaporation, energy balance and precipitation are important research objectives in assessing the effectiveness of adaptation strategies for flood protection and water retention. To unravel these mechanisms SVAT models are used in a high resolution meso-scale and coupled with SOBEK.
This project aims to deliver the knowledge required for the development of new transnational adaptation strategies within the Rhine river basin. It will study climate scenarios to 2050 and identify which strategies in the Netherlands and Germany will also be robust under climate scenarios to 2100. The project will also examine the role of the water boards in dealing with extreme weather events. In scientific terms, the project will link together atmospheric models (e.g. RAMS) and hydrological models (such as SOBEK and SWAP) to describe the energy and water balance of the Rhine river basin, paying particular attention to the role of soil moisture and land—atmosphere interactions. The scientific content of the project will be closely coordinated with the research being conducted in the NEWATER Integrated Project under the 6th EU Framework Programme.
VU University Amsterdam
FUCAM, Bergen, Belgium
CBRB
Port of Rotterdam
Dutch Ministry V&W
RIZA
CCR
AVV
RIVM
Prorail, Nedtrain
Description
CcSP aims to do develop different adaptation strategies for the transport sector (freight and passengers) under different climate scenarios (project A8). Impacts will be identified, also drawing upon research in other countries, and used to estimate the implications for the generalised costs of transport under various climate change scenarios. An analysis will be made of the consequences for freight transport, including modal choice and destination choice, with special attention to the impacts of climate change on inland navigation and its ability to compete with rail and road transport. Depending on the interests of the actors involved, a choice will be made for a particular theme in passenger transport. Potential candidates are the impacts of climate change on non-motorised transport modes such as cycling and walking, on public transport, and on the costs of congestion due to higher weather variability. The analysis will focus on the spatial consequences of freight and passenger transport for land use.
This project will analyse the potential effects of climate change on transport. The reliability of water transport is an important consideration. The consequences of adaptation strategies and the relations between spatial choices and transport will also be studied. First, changes in the generalised transport costs will be investigated using climate scenarios from project CS7 and possible strategies for adapting transport systems. The project will then identify potential adaptations that can be made in travel behaviour affecting the choice of destination and transport mode. Finally, the research will investigate the consequences of adaptations in transport systems and travel behaviour for land use, including the spatial reallocation of economic activities.
Rabobank Group
Water & Insurance
VU University Amsterdam, Institute of Environmental Studies (IVM)
Insurance sector Interpolis
Climate change IVM-FALW
Adaptation IVM-VU
Flood management FutureWater
The general approach followed within the CcSP programme is to develop sets of financial arrangements for flood-related risk sharing in the Netherlands that take climate change into account. The currently available financial arrangements will be reviewed and links made to EU policies where possible. Current damage risks for different locations will be assessed by analysing historic data on damage and extreme weather events. Possibilities for making financial strategies consistent with water management will be investigated.
This project will develop and evaluate adaptation strategies based on insurance against damage caused by extreme weather in the Netherlands. The research will investigate how such strategies can be made complementary to and consistent with water management measures. The project will focus on methods for spreading the risks, both geographically and across several public and private sectors.
Hotspots are practice-based projects within a single sector, location or region in which spatial planning and climate change play an important role and conflicts of interest are found between these and other factors. The definition of hotspots is currently the subject of debate. Within this definition study, efforts will be made to find spatial adaptation possibilities within potential hotspots. It is important that most of the work in this project is carried out by practitioners working in the field. The goal of the project is to create a well-founded list of possible hotspots which can either be worked up in detail in a follow-up hotspots project within the BSIK CcSP programme and/or are relevant for the Adapting Spatial Planning to Climate Change programme (ARK) and/or can be incorporated into the Routeplanner project.
completed (joint project with Leven met Water and Habiforum)
Description
The Routeplanner is the helpdesk for the ministries involved in the national Adapting Spatial Planning to Climate Change programme (ARK). The BSIK programmes CcSP, Leven met Water (Living with Water) and Habiforum are working together in support of the ARK programme to produce a baseline assessment of the degree to which the Netherlands is climate-proof in the present situation. The project will also provide the basis for an interdepartmental climate knowledge and policy agenda, with particular reference to adaptation and spatial planning.
Farmers and farming regions in the EU are increasingly concerned about whether they can remain competitive in a liberalizing economy. In this atlas future changes in agricultural production and land use are projected considering combined effects of market and climate change. The study aims to identify regions in Europe that are likely to remain agricultural or that are likely to convert to other land uses. Two IPCC scenarios A1Fl (global market with extensive fossil fuel use) and B2 (regional markets) are considered for three time slices: 2005, 2020 and 2050. Europe is restricted to the EU-27 including Norway and Switzerland or all countries up to the Ural. The atlas focuses on the arable crops wheat and potato and on dairy farming. The assessment methodology includes three steps.
Calculation of the achievable food supply for wheat, potato and milk considering effects of climate change and technology development. Productivity changes are made for agro-environmental zones using climate change projections from the HadCM3 General Circulation Model and scenario-specific assumptions about technology development.
Calculation of the demand for wheat, potato and milk based on the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model.
Adjustment of achievable supply to demand by adapting the area cultivated. This adjustment is based on the economic size of the farms used as competitiveness indicator.
The results presented suggest spatial changes (at NUTS1 level) of agricultural production across Europe.
Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment
VU University Amsterdam, Institute of Environmental Studies, FEWEB
Delft Hydraulics
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP)
Road and Hydraulic Engineering Institute (DWW)
National Institute for Coastal and Marine Management (RIKZ)
Institute for Inland Water Management and Waste Water Treatment (RIZA)
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
Wageningen UR
In the Dutch coastal zone, sixty percent of the Dutch territory, 70% of the gross national product (GDP) is earned. After the major sea floods in 1953 to date, the Netherlands has invested $15 billion in today’s dollars in the Delta plan. The safety standards for sea defence in the Delta Plan were based upon the (future) capital, people at risk and knowledge of that time about strength of waves during storms. However, the Gross national income (GDP) in the coastal zone increased five-fold over the last fifty years, the population living in this area increased more than assumed and agriculture became less important while recreation increased. Furthermore, climate change and sea level rise in the long run will lead to situations where safety levels against flooding in parts of the (sandy) coast, no longer meet official standards. CcSP research aims to improve the implementation of long-term policy regarding flood protection in the coastal zone. Climate problems call for true integration across scientific disciplines, economic sectors and stakeholder groups. Therefore the methods to be developed should give space for participatory cross-sectoral evaluation of adaptation strategies.
Zuid-Holland Provincial Council, Xplorelab
VU University Amsterdam Institute of Environmental Studies
Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Architecture and Faculty of Civil Engineering
Wageningen UR
Schieland en de Krimpernerwaard regional water board
Consept (Zuid-Holland environmental federation)
The Zuidplaspolder is one of the deepest polders in the Netherlands at 6 metres below Amsterdam Ordnance Datum. In the National Spatial Strategy the polder is designated a development area to meet the need for urban expansion (including greenhouse horticulture) in the southern half of the Randstad. Parts of this reclaimed lake are subject to land subsidence, and the polder is situated next to the Hollandse IJssel river, which is connected to the major rivers in the delta and via them to the sea. A breach of the dike would therefore have serious consequences. In addition, climate change will increase the likelihood of flooding and high groundwater levels caused by intensive rainfall, of drought and of upward seepage of partly saline groundwater. The polder will have to be laid out in such a way that future residents and businesses are not negatively affected by any of these processes. The final product will consist not only of a final report,but also a covenant or declaration of intent between the Zuidplas parties on the use and implementation of the ideas generated and the knowledge acquired during the project.
Tilburg is situated in a higher part of the Netherlands and will therefore not be directly affected by rising sea levels caused by climate change. However, the city will feel the effects of climate change on many other fronts, including the design of the built environment, groundwater levels, sewers, flora and fauna, water discharge problems in regional tributaries of the Meuse, recreation, etc. Tilburg will therefore serve as an example of the issues that will affect large parts of the Netherlands.
In general terms, a method will be developed for coping with climate change which will be applicable to other regions and municipalities. The intended result for the Tilburg region is a local grouping of stakeholders who will implement a regional climate programme.
Water board Hunze en Aa’s, Water board Noorderzijlvest, Municipality of Groningen, KNMI, WUR (Alterra, Governance & Landscape Architecture), TUD (CiTG & Architecture), VU (IVM, FEWEB), Tauw, Energy Valley
In the autumn of 2006, the Groningen province started to construct policy on how to arrange land use in the future. On several fields, the Groningen province is vulnerable to water stress, floods and droughts. When compared to the potential, one can conclude there is insufficient adaptation of the province to make use of renewable energy recourses to mitigate climate change. The goal of this project is not only to make the Groningen province policy climate proof, but also to develop a methodology that can be implemented in the policy of other provinces of the Netherlands. In this hotspot the focus is on both the process of implementation and the actual change in policy.
A19 - Het bepalen van de adaptatieve capaciteit van de landbouw in Nederland voor de effecten van klimaatverandering onder verschillende markt en beleidscenario’s
Project leader
Dr. Frank A. Ewert (frank.ewert(at)wur.nl) Plant Production Systems, Kees van Diepen, Alterra Wageningen UR
Status
In preparation
Consortium
WUR PPS, Alterra, LEI, PRI, Crop and Weed Ecology (CWE) University of Bonn, MTT Agrifood Research Finland (Mikkeli)
Beschrijving
Key objective of the project is the development of a methodology to assess climate change impacts on agriculture including adaptation at regional and farm type level in combination with market changes. The developed methodology should be of interest to applied scientists dealing with climate change impacts and adaptation at the regional level. Potential users of the results obtained from applying this methodology will include national and regional policy makers and stakeholders in the region. The methodology should enable:
the assessment of impacts, risks and resiliencies for agriculture under changes in climatic conditions including increasing climate variability
the evaluation of adaptation strategies at farm type and regional scale
This will require the development of:
models to simulate changes in agricultural management activities including technology development
linkages between market, farming system and biophysical (e.g. cropping system) models
upscaling procedures of farm-performance indicators (environmental and economic) from the farm to the regional scale
models to estimate risk (knock-out risks) and resilience (viability) trajectories of farming systems under climate change
The project further aims to apply the developed methodology to:
assess the impacts of climate change and increased variability on Dutch agriculture for selected regions and farm types in the ‘hotspot’ project in interaction with market change
considering different economic and environmental indicators
explore alternative policy options (compared to current policy) to support adaptation of agriculture to climate change in the ‘hotspot’ project evaluate the obtained results with stakeholders in the regions of the ‘hotspot’ project
A21 - Climate and Agriculture in Northern-Netherlands
Project leader
Peter Prins (LTO Noord)
Status
Funding agreement is not ready yet
Consortium
LTO Noord (sub contract with Grontmij), WUR-PRI, WUR-Alterra
Beschrijving
This project is a continuation of goals and concepts from project A12 ‘Definitiefase Klimaat en Landbouw’. The effects of climate on the agricultural sector in northern Holland, based on climate and market scenario’s, will be described. The focus will be on the frequency and scale of extremes in weather. Based on the outcome of this project new adaptationstrategies will be drawn up. These clear plans on what to do will be climate and market proof and on a regional scale. This research project is distinguished by the interactive design. On regular bases the results of the research will be discussed with government and stakeholders so that new priorities for further research can be made. The first fase of the project will be to understand the problem specified for the northern part of the Netherlands. This is done by communication with every organisation involved: government, corporations, the public and other involved organisations. This investigation will provide several scenarios for the agriculture and climate on a scale of northern Netherlands.
