MNP-RIVM
Wageningen UR, Plant Production Systems, Laboratory for Soil Science and Geology, Alterra, Plant Research International
TNO-MEP
UU - NW&S
Description
This project will analyse various mitigation options within both regions and sectors on several spatial scales and for various socio-economic scenarios. The analyses will encompass several policy areas, such as agriculture (EU), climate, trade (WTO) and other (European) environmental policies (including biodiversity, eutrophication, water). Existing modelling tools will be improved, expanded and harmonised.
Climate change affects the land use at large scales rather than at small scales. At the same time, it will be necessary to explore how local initiatives can contribute to national adaptation strategies, and how at the local scale potential synergy between sector solutions can be realised. This should be done in such a way that conflicting claims (costs and benefits) on natural and economic resources are as optimal as possible on all scales. Therefore, there is a need to identify climate-change-driven spatial changes in land use and land development, and integrate changes in agriculture, industry, housing, nature conservation and water management into balanced national visions and regional solutions. For all these impacts, integrated adaptation strategies will be identified by exploring possible and feasible re-arrangements of land use in the Netherlands at local and national scale.
The LANDS project takes a cross-sectoral look at how land-use changes driven by climate change can be translated into national adaptation strategies and regional measures. Agricultural, industrial, housing and nature conservation land uses will be examined. Two cross-sectoral themes have been identified: water management and habitat management. Land-use monitoring techniques will be used to identify potential spatial planning opportunities and conflicts under various scenarios. The project will integrate results from projects within the adaptation theme in a ‘land use scanner’. This tool is based on socio-economic and climate scenarios and is used in a GIS environment. It will generate insights into possible future claims on land in the Netherlands resulting from adaptation strategies.
Wageningen UR, Department of Social Sciences
VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration – Spatial Economics, Institute of Environmental Studies (IVM)
Arcadis Regio BV
Description
CcSP research will focus on the methodological issues for cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and multicriteria analysis (MCA) in a spatially explicit and dynamic context, including ancillary benefits and the issue of how to allocate costs to various domains, if ancillary benefits exist.
This project aims to develop a consistent method for using integral cost-benefit analyses, multicriteria analyses and other appraisal methods in the field of climate-related issues and spatial planning. The analyses will be conducted chiefly on decision-making under conditions of irreversibility and uncertainty. The methodology will also be applied to practical situations in various other projects under the BSIK CcSP programme (water management, renewable energy, coastal zone). Innovations will arise from adapting cost-benefit analysis to intersectoral and regional interactions.
VU University Amsterdam, Institute of Environmental Studies (IVM)
Wageningen UR, WIMEK
Description
Over the last decade, there has been growing attention for participatory approaches in integrated environmental assessment. There is still much work to do on improving the quality of participatory assessments, especially the ability of stakeholder assessments to articulate and reflect upon conflicting knowledge claims that play a role in issues like climate change. The articulation of knowledge claims is certainly not the exclusive domain of scientific expertise, since stakeholders may very well have greater expertise in specific knowledge domains than scientists. The basic assumption underlying the concept of Integrated Assessment is that the outcomes of scientific tests may help stakeholders to make choices about the preferred course of action. Hence, it is necessary to develop a method that can assist stakeholder assessments by mapping out the argumentation patterns of the different actors, especially stakeholders and scientists, involved in a specific issue.
The goal of this project is to provide a sounder theoretical basis for participative methods and improve these methods to support dialogue processes within the BSIK CcSP programme. The approach focuses primarily on identifying conflicts of interests and knowledge claims. Methods commonly used in systems analysis will be used in participative methods for the first time.
VU University Amsterdam, Institute of Environmental Studies
Utrecht University, Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation
University of Twente, Faculty of Engineering Technology
Description
Communication about climate change is unique in many ways. It concerns a long-term problem, but is sometimes highly relevant today. It receives widespread attention in the media, with considerable coverage given to critics and doom-mongers alike. The debate is not just about the facts of climate change, but also the interpretation of the facts and how they are presented.
Methods will be developed for revealing and explaining the risks and opportunities in a scientifically sound manner, and one that is also in tune with the way people and organisations with a stake in climate change communication actually think.
VU University Amsterdam, Institute of Environmental Studies
WL Delft Hydraulics
Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB)
Netherlands Institute for Spatial Research (RPB)
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP)
Most climate studies are about the future. But it is not just the climate that is changing; society is changing too. It makes little sense, therefore, to project future climate effects onto the current socioeconomic situation. We can explore these situations by conducting scenario studies. Scenarios are descriptions of possible future developments and trends. They consist of storylines, which are usually based on quantitative models.
The project will generate socio-economic scenarios for climate studies, including storylines, models and instructions on how to use them, in collaboration with future partners.
In this project we will establish whether limitations, such as time horizon of the WTO scenarios are significant, and if so, what we can do about it. Workshops will be held with potential users of the scenarios, the suitability of the scenarios will be tested in a case study, and we will explore, with three WLO authors from CPB, RPB and MNP, how the underlying models can be made available for use by other researchers.
Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, Wageningen UR, Public Administration and Policy Group, Wageningen UR Alterra, Radboud Universitity, TU Delft, DHV
Description
The research will investigate, in a variety of ways, how Dutch society can adapt to climate change. Ecosystems and wildlife may need another type of National Ecological Network; more space is needed for water, and building plans may have to be moved to different areas. The result will be a diagnosis of the adaptive capacity of Dutch institutions. The main problem areas have been described and some initial solutions have been identified.
